“Matey, why do you often speak about the importance of prioritizing new coins instead of old ones?”
This is a question that you ask me a lot of times.
Perfect, in this post I’ll explain to you why with a detailed analysis.
Spoiler: there are key alphas in this sum-up.
“This new project will rule the world”
“The potential of this coin will make me rich”
How many times have you heard these statements?
This is the classic retails mentality that comes back at every cycle, driven by greed and blinded by the green candles.
A practice that turns late buyers into future bagholders.
It also nourishes the mistake of thinking that a project will surely increase exponentially because it is making fundamental progress, losing plenty of market opportunities in the meantime.
Simply because of 3 aspects:
• Projects lose hype and interest
• Tokens are not shares that go up just because fundamentals are good
• The market is unregulated and doesn’t favor real utility, yet
𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝𝐞𝐫 𝐑𝐮𝐧𝐛𝐚𝐜𝐤
What I noticed over these 6 years in crypto, is that many old coins produce what I call a “Complacency shoulder runback”.
They substantially rise close to the past cycle complacency shoulder.
Let’s see the following examples: DASH and XVG.
As you can see, they were both 2017 top performers, producing respectively 763.000% and 3300000% from the lows. (less or more)
But they were also unable to break their previous ATH in the following cycle.
In fact, they soared 1300% and 6600% from the Covid lows.
Surely big gains, but what would have happened if you had bought at ATH?
You would still be down after a whole 4-year cycle, not to mention the fact that plenty of coins never soared consistently again (OmiseGo, Dragonchain etc)
There are plenty of similar examples, just scroll through old project charts and you’ll see this pattern repeating.
The resistance zones you see in the chart and the highs produced are levels in which there are people who previously bought the top.
What are they waiting for?
To dump on you when/if the price rises back.
Fresh is the solution
What unites the top performers of the past cycle?
Yes, a component of tokenomics.
But most importantly the freshness of the chart.
Those who move the market aren’t retails.
Those who move the market are traders and whales.
What do they look for?
A chart that has mainly 2 features:
• Short History (1 year or less/didn’t experience a bull cycle)
• No significant resistance levels
This contributes to raising the probability of a coin’s price increase, together with the logical rush from retails that provides exit liquidity.
Imagine a chart as a fast run.
An old chart is scattered with obstacles and walls.
At some point, despite attempting to avoid them, you smack with them, slowing down the run and getting hurt.
An old chart instead, is a clean road.
You can continue to run thoughtlessly until you consume your energy, interrupting the run.
Which way would you choose?
“But bro, are you telling me that old projects are dead?”
No, they can rise them too, but they will likely perform less independently of the strength of the project.
What you should be choosing to maximize gains:
• Good tokenomics
• New projects (that also have the odds to soar with a trending narrative)
• Strong community/projects
• Fresh charts
This simple but effective framework will likely help you find the next 10/50x multipliers and so on.
You have to get your hands dirty to find them, of course.
Want to add an old one to mix up your portfolio?
But be elastic enough to consider which is the Apex Predator for crypto: speculation.